Authors
Bermudez-Guzman, L., Ramos-Esquivel, A., Alpizar-Alpizar, W.
Abstract
Early- and average-onset colorectal cancer (CRC) are separated at age 50, but whether this defines a biological threshold remains unclear. To clarify this, we identified molecular profiles in nine harmonised cBioPortal CRC cohorts (4,609 patients) by fitting Bernoulli mixture models to 31 repair-state, genomic-burden, and gene-alteration features, excluding age, sex, and tumour site, and compared their prevalence using <50/[≥]50 and decade-resolved groups. Four profiles captured conventional/CIN-like (P1), intermediate MSS (P2), KRAS/PI3K/APC-rich (P3), and hypermutated/MSI-high (P4) states along a left-to-right gradient. Although molecular identities remained stable, profile prevalence followed non-linear P1/P4 and opposing linear P2/P3 age trajectories. Profile-prevalence patterns did not track chronological proximity: profile composition at 30-39 differed from 50-59 but not clearly from 60-69. The age-50 threshold captured only 17.8% of decade-resolved deviance, whereas the optimal age-70 cut-off retained only 51.3%. Validation in 2,579 non-overlapping MSK-IMPACT patients (2,476 age-evaluable) reproduced molecular-feature patterns (r=0.97-0.98), age trajectories (r=0.92), and limited binary-threshold performance: age 50 and the optimal age-66 cut-off retained 12.7% and 45.1%, respectively. Thus, age reorganizes the prevalence of shared CRC states rather than defining a biological threshold at age 50.
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bioRxiv
The authors list and abstract were imported from bioRxiv on 16 Aug 2026.
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