Bridging Ecological Inference and Decision Optimization for Conservation Using Artificial Intelligence

Authors

Yoon, H. S., Yackulic, C. B., Lawson, A. J., Wagnon, C., Pregler, K.

Abstract

The ability to model the complex and uncertain population dynamics of endangered species has improved dramatically in recent decades. However, approaches to identify optimal decisions often require a simplified representation of population dynamics. This leads to a conundrum where managers may be unsure about the output of dynamic decision models because they rely on simplified assumptions of the underlying population dynamics. Here, by pairing integrated population models (IPM) that synthesize diverse ecological data with deep reinforcement learning (DRL) capable of optimizing decisions with high-dimensional uncertainty, we introduce a framework that delivers data-driven and ecologically detailed adaptive management strategies. We demonstrate its utility through application to the supplementation program for the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow. Using our IPM-DRL framework, we developed an adaptive decision model that selects production and distribution decisions of the supplementation program in response to the observed demographic, hydrological, and genetic environment. The decision model outperformed all heuristic approaches in the simulation across management objectives that weighed persistence and effective population size-related genetic impact differently. For example, the currently deployed supplementation strategy performed 5.3% worse than the decision model under the persistence-focused objective scoring and 185% worse under the genetics-focused one. Analysis of the model's decisions in relation to demographic and environmental covariates revealed that minimum sub-population size and total population size were primary drivers of the model's decisions. The results demonstrate that the IPM-DRL framework offers a high-performing and interpretable decision-support tool for managing endangered species.

Preprint server: bioRxiv
The authors list and abstract were imported from bioRxiv on 16 Aug 2026.

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