Tree-aware conditional language modeling recovers mutational patterns of viral evolution

Authors

Polunina, P. V., Maier, W., Rubin, A. F.

Abstract

The evolutionary accessibility of a protein mutation depends on the sequence background in which it arises and its lineage history, yet most protein language models estimate sequence plausibility without explicitly considering the ordered sequence changes through which descendants arise. We developed evoPLM-Tree, a tree-aware conditional autoregressive language model that predicts descendant protein sequences from ancestral sequences together with phylogenetically derived evolutionary features. We demonstrated our approach using SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, pairing sequences from early Omicron lineages according to their positions on a mutation-annotated phylogeny, and evaluating model performance on sequence pairs from later lineages. Prompt-masking experiments showed that incorporating phylogenetic context substantially increased reliance on the supplied input information compared with a sequence-only model. Generated descendant sequences accurately reproduced the positional distribution of mutations observed during viral evolution, with strong correlations between predicted and observed mutation-frequency profiles for both the receptor-binding domain (Spearman's {rho} = 0.823) and the full spike protein ({rho} = 0.736). Although prediction accuracy for individual substitutions decreased with increasing evolutionary distance, the model consistently captured aggregate mutational patterns across the spike protein. Model-assigned mutation probabilities were also enriched among substitutions experimentally tolerated in deep mutational scanning assays of Omicron BA.2 receptor-binding domain expression (1.19-fold enrichment) and ACE2 binding (1.04-fold enrichment), despite the model being trained solely on observed ancestor-descendant sequence pairs and associated phylogenetic context features. These results demonstrate that explicitly providing protein language models with phylogenetic context during sequence generation can recover lineage-specific mutational patterns and yields probabilistic predictions consistent with experimentally measured functional constraints. evoPLM-Tree provides a framework for modeling protein evolution along phylogenetic lineages and prioritizing plausible future mutations from genomic surveillance data.

Preprint server: bioRxiv
The authors list and abstract were imported from bioRxiv on 27 Aug 2026.

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