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Distance to future climate analogues reveals refugia for agricultural adaptation

Created on 04 Nov 2025

Authors

Geldbach Jones, A., Pironon, S., Friis, G., Geldbach, D., Borrell, J. S.

Abstract

Future climate trends are predicted to cause a dramatic shift in the geographic distribution of global agriculture. Mapping the distance to future analogues provides a crucial measure of adaptation potential, and reveals steep slope agriculture, regions with small field sizes, and ancient centres of crop domestication have more proximal climate analogues. Drawing parallels from wild biodiversity conservation, these landscapes could play a critical role as climate refugia for agrobiodiversity.

Preprint server: bioRxiv
The authors list and abstract were imported from bioRxiv on 04 Nov 2025.

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