Climate mitigation potential for targeted forestation after considering climate change, fires, and albedo.

Authors

Shijing Liang, Alan D Ziegler, Peter B Reich, Kai Zhu, Dashan Wang, Xin Jiang, Deliang Chen, Philippe Ciais, Zhenzhong Zeng

Published in

Science advances. Volume 11. Issue 15. Pages eadn7915. Apr 11, 2025. Epub Apr 09, 2025.

Abstract

Afforestation and reforestation, both of which refer to forestation strategies, are widely promoted as key tools to mitigate anthropogenic warming. However, the carbon sequestration potential of these efforts remains uncertain in satellite-based assessments, particularly when accounting for dynamic climate conditions, vegetation-climate feedback, fire-dominated disturbance, and the trade-offs associated with surface albedo changes. Leveraging a coupled Earth system model, we estimated that global forestation mitigates 31.3 to 69.2 Pg C_eq (carbon equivalent) during 2021-2100 under a sustainable shared socioeconomic pathway. Regionally, the highest carbon mitigation potential of forestation concentrates in tropical areas, while mid-high-latitude regions demonstrate higher heterogeneity, highlighting the need for region-specific strategies and further refinement of nature-based mitigation plans. Our findings underscore the importance of considering disturbances and minimizing adverse albedo changes when estimating the carbon mitigation potential of forestation initiatives. We also advocate for the development of consistent, high-resolution maps of suitable areas for targeted forestation, avoiding environmentally sensitive lands and potential conflicts with other human activities.

PMID:
40203095
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 10 Apr 2025.

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