Impact of economic growth patterns on carbon quota allocation by industry in China: extensive or intensive.

Authors

Lang Tang, Peng Wang, Xiaoyu Liu, Songyan Ren, Haihua Mo, Hai Tao, Jiabao Cao

Published in

Scientific reports. Volume 15. Issue 1. Pages 13581. Apr 19, 2025. Epub Apr 19, 2025.

Abstract

Economic growth is closely related to carbon emissions, and determining the appropriate emission reduction targets for various sectors under different economic models has always been a challenge. This paper utilizes an Energy-Economic-Environment CGE model to simulate two types of economic growth models: extensive and intensive. Four economic growth scenarios are defined, and initial carbon quota allocations for various sectors are obtained for China at two key points: the peak year (2029) and the post-peak year (2035). The ZSG-DEA model is applied, considering the principles of fairness and efficiency, to iterate carbon efficiency across 33 industries and obtain quota adjustment values. The results indicate that the innovation-driven scenario, representing intensive growth, achieves a win-win outcome compared to other scenarios by enhancing GDP and avoiding additional carbon reduction costs. The initial carbon emission efficiency in agriculture, chemicals, steel, electronics, water supply, and services all reached 1. Comparative analysis reveals that the sectors of electricity, chemicals, coal, and cement face higher emission reduction pressures, while agriculture and services experience relatively lower pressures.

PMID:
40253423
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 20 Apr 2025.

Read full publication at:
Please sign in to see all details.

Stats

1-terrible, 9-excellent. How would you rate this publication? Sign in in to submit your rating.

Post a comment

You need to be signed in to post comments. You can sign in here.

Comments

There are no comments yet.