Skillful multiyear prediction of flood frequency along the US Northeast Coast using a high-resolution modeling system.

Authors

Liping Zhang, Thomas L Delworth, Vimal Koul, Andrew Ross, Charles Stock, Xiaosong Yang, Fanrong Zeng, Andrew Wittenberg, Jian Zhao, Qinxue Gu, Shouwei Li

Published in

Science advances. Volume 11. Issue 20. Pages eads4419. May 16, 2025. Epub May 16, 2025.

Abstract

Using tide gauge (TG) observations, we identify pronounced multidecadal fluctuations in sea level along the US Northeast Coast (USNEC) superimposed on a long-term increasing trend. This multidecadal sea level variability, largely arising from fluctuations in the buoyancy-driven Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), substantially modulates the frequency of flood occurrences along the USNEC and serves as a source of multiyear predictability. Using an initialized dynamical downscaling decadal prediction system with a ¹/₁₂° ocean resolution, we demonstrate that flood frequency along the USNEC can be predicted on multiyear to decadal timescales. The long-term increasing trend in flood frequency, mainly driven by increasing greenhouse gases and associated radiative forcing changes, can be predicted a decade ahead. Furthermore, detrended flood frequency along the USNEC exhibits prediction skill for up to 3 years, as verified by TG observation. This multiyear prediction skill is achieved using prediction models that are initialized from our best estimate of observed AMOC.

PMID:
40378208
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 17 May 2025.

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