Authors
Chen Wang, Xiuming Zhang, Chenchen Ren, Xin Xuan, Luxi Cheng, Yiyang Zou, Jianming Xu, Baojing Gu
Published in
Nature food. Jun 15, 2026. Epub Jun 15, 2026.
Abstract
Understanding how the grain trade redistributes environmental burdens across regions is critical for designing equitable food security and environmental stewardship policies. Using grain production, trade and environmental data from 1980 to 2020, we quantify environmental spillovers embedded in China's interprovincial grain trade, identify their socio-economic and climatic drivers, project future scenarios and estimate ecological compensation schemes. Interprovincial grain trade increased more than fivefold (from 22 to 128 million tonnes), and production shifted northwards, generating a 196% increase in virtual cropland displacement, a 415% rise in virtual water consumption and more than a 217% increase in embodied nitrogen losses and greenhouse gas emissions in China. Irrigation, mechanization and urbanization were the key drivers of these shifts, outweighing climatic influences. Continued reliance on northern grain exports could escalate environmental costs, and climate-induced yield declines may shrink trade networks. Addressing these inequitable regional ecological burdens may require south-to-north transfers of up to US$12.5 billion by 2060 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5.
PMID:
42298024
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 16 Jun 2026.
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