Predictive modeling of Staphylococcus aureus growth and enterotoxin production in chicken cuts.

Authors

Graziela Chaulet Flores, Isadora Altmann Peixoto, Bernardo Nassau de Souza, Claudia Titze Hessel Gonçalves, Fabíola Ayres Cacciatore, Susana de Oliveira Elias, Eduardo Cesar Tondo

Published in

International journal of food microbiology. Volume 459. Pages 111904. Jun 14, 2026. Epub Jun 14, 2026.

Abstract

Staphylococcus aureus is a major foodborne pathogen capable of producing heat-stable enterotoxins. In Brazil, the risk it poses in chicken slaughterhouses has been classified as moderate, raising concern since chicken products are often processed at ≤12 °C and toxin production has been reported at 10 °C. We developed predictive microbiology models to assess S. aureus growth and evaluate enterotoxin production in chicken whole leg boneless, skin-on, half breast skinless, without inner fillet, and mechanically separated meat (MSM) exposed to 7-46 °C. Growth curves were used to build primary and secondary predictive models based on the Baranyi & Roberts (1994), and toxin detection was performed in samples presenting ≥4 Log CFU/g. At 15 °C, populations reached 5.0-6.5 Log CFU/g depending on product; at 25 °C, rapid growth to 6-8 Log CFU/g occurred within 24 h without toxin production. No growth occurred at 7 °C to 72 h in MSM, and a slight growth was observed in periods not commonly found in slaughterhouses for half chicken breast and chicken whole leg. At 10 °C, growth patterns varied among products: while no growth occurred in MSM, half chicken breast and chicken whole leg increased 1.5 and 0.9 Log CFU/g, respectively. At 15 °C, populations reached 5.0-6.5 Log CFU/g depending on product; at 25 °C, rapid growth to 6-8 Log CFU/g occurred within 24 h without toxin production. At 37 °C, enterotoxins were detected in MSM and breast after 8-13 h when populations exceeded 6.5-8.0 Log CFU/g. Counts declined sharply at 46 °C. Models showed high accuracy (R², RMSE, Bf, Af) and enabled estimation of μmax, lag phase, and maximum density. Simulated industrial scenarios demonstrated non-negligible growth (>0.5 Log CFU/g) after at least 37 h at 10 °C, 12 h at 12 °C, 8 h at 15 °C, 6 h at 20, and 3.5 h at 25 °C. These findings indicate a low possibility of S. aureus multiplication and enterotoxin production in the chicken products tested when processed under proper slaughterhouse conditions.

PMID:
42314251
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 19 Jun 2026.

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