Assessment of water supply-demand matching under intensive human activities from the perspective of ecosystem service synergies and trade-offs: A case study in the Haihe River Basin of China.

Authors

Xinyang Ma, Zongxue Xu, Depeng Zuo, Xudong Zhang

Published in

Journal of environmental management. Volume 412. Pages 130263. Jun 19, 2026. Epub Jun 19, 2026.

Abstract

Ecosystem services (ESs) and ecological processes are commonly regarded as integrated outcomes arising from interactions among multiple ecosystem components. However, understanding of how interrelationships among ESs affect water supply-demand matching remains limited. This study selected the Haihe River Basin (HRB) to investigate the relationship patterns associated with water supply-demand matching from a relational ES perspective. Multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) was employed to identify the synergies and trade-offs between water yield (WY) and other ESs, and water supply-demand matching was quantified using the Freshwater Security Index (FSI). Machine learning models were subsequently applied to quantify the contributions of ES relationships to FSI and identify threshold responses. The results show that: (1) WY demonstrated pronounced variations during 2000-2020 and peaked in 2010 (3.05 × 10¹⁰ m³), whereas areas exhibiting strong synergy and trade-off effects between WY and other ESs expanded from 71.6% to 81.0% of the total basin. (2) The FSI patterns remained in a long-term deficit state, with the imbalanced areas accounting for approximately 55-60% of the basin, and deficit zones in the central-eastern plains expanded after 2010. (3) A clear shift in ES relationships was observed around 2010. Before 2010, the relationship between habitat quality and WY was closely associated with FSI and exhibited a critical threshold at -1.0. After 2010, the relationship between soil conservation and WY showed a clear threshold association with FSI, and the key turning point identified by partial dependence analysis stabilized at approximately zero. This study provides new insight into water resource management by revealing the role of ES relationship shifts and threshold responses in water supply-demand matching.

PMID:
42320203
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 20 Jun 2026.

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