Comparative 10-year performance of mammography artificial intelligence, polygenic, and clinical breast cancer risk models in the Kaiser Permanente Research Bank.

Authors

Vignesh A Arasu, Tejomay Gadgil, Joseph H Rothstein, Stacey E Alexeeff, Ninah S Achacoso, Arjun Bhattacharya, Jason B Cord, Laura J Esserman, Woodward Galbraith, Lawrence D Gerstley, Susan Taylor Head, Nola M Hylton, Lawrence H Kushi, Catherine Lee, Amethyst D Leimpeter, Donald A Lewis, Vincent Liu, Ben J Marafino, Laurie R Margolies, Daniel A Navarro, Albert Pu, Lori C Sakoda, Jun Shan, Yiwey Shieh, Adriana Sistig, Cara L Smith Gueye, Laura Van't Veer, Marvella Villaseñor, Mark Westley, Dorota J Wisner, Jeffrey A Tice, Li Shen, Laurel A Habel, Weiva Sieh

Published in

Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Jun 23, 2026. Epub Jun 23, 2026.

Abstract

We compared performance across 3 breast cancer risk domains-clinical, polygenic, and mammography artificial intelligence-alone and in combination over a 10-year time horizon among women with a negative screening mammogram within a Kaiser Permanente Research Bank (KPRB) prospective cohort.
The study included 82 957 women (61 962 non-Hispanic White, 7256 Asian, 3414 Black, and 5466 Latina) who enrolled in KPRB between 2003 to 2020. Women with a prior history of breast cancer or high/moderate-penetrant gene mutation were excluded. The negative screening mammogram (no clinically visible cancer) closest to enrollment was used to generate the Mirai mammography AI risk score. KPRB survey and electronic health record data were used to generate the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium version 3 (BCSCv3) clinical risk score. Genome-wide genotypes were used to compute the 313-SNP polygenic risk score, adjusted for genetic ancestry (PRS313adj). Risks of breast cancer (invasive or ductal carcinoma in situ) at 0 to 10 years after the mammogram were estimated using Cox models, with 5-fold cross-validation used to estimate the C-index.
During 10 years of follow-up, 2471 women developed breast cancer. The C-index (95% CI) for the combined model with all 3 risk scores (0.70; 95% CI = 0.69 to 0.71) was significantly higher than for univariate models with only the BCSCv3 (0.62; 95% CI = 0.61 to 0.63), PRS313adj (0.61; 95% CI = 0.60 to 0.62), or Mirai (0.66; 95% CI = 0.65 to 0.67) risk score.
Integrating mammographic AI and polygenic risk scores with clinical risk models significantly improved breast cancer risk discrimination, supporting use of combined models for personalized screening and prevention.

PMID:
42331353
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 23 Jun 2026.

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