Predicting SIRS after PCNL using machine learning: the joint impact of sarcopenia and staghorn stones.

Authors

Song Wei, Boran Lv, Baiyu Liu, Qunxiong Huang, Cheng Hu, Hua Wang

Published in

World journal of urology. Volume 44. Issue 1. Jun 25, 2026. Epub Jun 25, 2026.

Abstract

To develop and validate machine learning models for predicting systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) after percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), to establish a web-based prediction tool, and to investigate the association between sarcopenia and staghorn stones as well as their potential synergistic effect on postoperative SIRS.
Patients undergoing PCNL between January 2021 and August 2025 at The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University were retrospectively analyzed and randomly divided into training and validation sets (7:3). Feature selection was performed using elastic net and Boruta. Six machine learning models were developed and compared, with SHAP used for interpretability. The optimal model was used to build a web-based prediction tool. Associations and interaction effects between sarcopenia and staghorn stones were further assessed.
A total of 755 patients were included, with a SIRS incidence of 17.62%. XGBoost achieved the best performance (validation set: AUC = 0.863, accuracy = 0.863, sensitivity = 0.763, specificity = 0.883, F1 score = 0.652). SHAP analysis identified staghorn stones and sarcopenia as the most important predictors. Sarcopenia was positively associated with staghorn stones. A significant synergistic effect on SIRS was observed, confirmed by both multiplicative interaction (OR = 4.229, 95% CI 1.354-14.432, P = 0.016) and additive interaction (RERI = 25.473, AP = 0.854, S = 8.600).
The XGBoost model provides robust prediction of postoperative SIRS after PCNL, and the web-based tool may assist in risk stratification. Sarcopenia and staghorn stones are positively associated, and their coexistence is linked to a higher risk of SIRS with a potential positive interaction, highlighting the need for individualized perioperative management.

PMID:
42347952
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 25 Jun 2026.

Read full publication at:
Please sign in to see all details.

Stats

1-terrible, 9-excellent. How would you rate this publication? Sign in in to submit your rating.

Post a comment

You need to be signed in to post comments. You can sign in here.

Comments

There are no comments yet.