Authors
Giorgio Galletti, Sara Salvato, Stefania Calò, Maria Ottaiano, Maria Beatrice Boniotti, Marco Tamba
Published in
Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland). Volume 15. Issue 6. Jun 15, 2026. Epub Jun 15, 2026.
Abstract
Animal tuberculosis in cattle (TB) has been controlled in many European countries through long-standing eradication programs, yet sporadic breakdowns continue to occur in officially tuberculosis-free (OTF) areas, challenging the sustainability of disease freedom. This study aimed to identify and quantify herd-level and area-level risk factors associated with TB occurrence in Italian OTF regions in order to support risk-based surveillance strategies. A national longitudinal open-cohort study was conducted using data from the Italian Veterinary Information System, including approximately 300,000 herd-year observations from 2022 to 2025. The outcome was the occurrence of at least one TB breakdown per herd-year, analyzed using a discrete-time hazard modeling approach based on a binomial generalized linear mixed model with province-level random effects. The incidence of TB remained very low but increased over time, and significant spatial clustering was observed. Higher TB risk was associated with larger herd size, a previous history of TB, non-OTF herd status, proximity to recent breakdowns, number of animals purchased, transhumance practices, and a shorter time since acquisition of OTF status at provincial level. These findings highlight that, even in disease-free contexts, TB risk is heterogeneous and driven by identifiable factors, supporting the refinement of targeted, risk-based surveillance to maintain OTF status over time.
PMID:
42347248
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 25 Jun 2026.
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