Authors
Remigius Okeke Aja, Sussan Ijeoma Ezeh, William Atokolo, Godwin Onuche Acheneje, Ali Raza, Edrisa Jawo
Published in
Scientific reports. Jul 04, 2026. Epub Jul 04, 2026.
Abstract
Mycoplasma pneumoniae is one of the causative agents of community-acquired infections, with epidemic cycles recorded over 37 years and a current international revival after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study elaborates and critically examines a deterministic thirteen-compartmental mathematical model to understand the dynamics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae, including vulnerability stratification, dual-strain progression, and intervention pathways in healthcare. The positivity and boundedness of solutions are proved to establish the well-posedness of the model biologically. Local asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is established when [Formula: see text] and global asymptotic stability at the endemic equilibrium when [Formula: see text] via Lyapunov functions. The model exhibits backward bifurcation as temporary immunity decays (when [Formula: see text]), suggesting that [Formula: see text], though necessary, is not sufficient for eradication of Mycoplasma pneumoniae. Optimal control with time-varying vaccination [Formula: see text], intensified treatment [Formula: see text], and prevention compliance [Formula: see text] reduces infectious and hospitalised compartments by 90-[Formula: see text], while the absence of controls allows endemic persistence. The results provide an evidence-based framework for designing targeted, cost-efficient interventions to control Mycoplasma pneumoniae epidemics and safeguard vulnerable populations.
PMID:
42401612
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 05 Jul 2026.
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