Data-adaptive identification of effect modifiers through stochastic shift interventions and cross-validated targeted learning.

Authors

David McCoy, Wenxin Zhang, Alan Hubbard, Mark van der Laan, Alejandro Schuler

Published in

Biostatistics (Oxford, England). Volume 27. Issue 1. Jan 20, 2026.

Abstract

In epidemiology, identifying subpopulations that are particularly vulnerable to exposures and those who may benefit differently from exposure-reducing interventions is essential. Factors such as age, gender-specific vulnerabilities, and physiological states such as pregnancy are critical for policymakers when setting regulatory guidelines. However, current semiparametric methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects are often limited to binary exposures and can function as black boxes, lacking clear, interpretable rules for subpopulation-specific policy interventions. This study introduces a novel method that uses cross-validated targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) paired with a data-adaptive target parameter strategy to identify subpopulations with the most significant differential impact of simulated policy interventions that reduce exposure. Our approach is assumption-lean, allowing for the integration of machine learning while still yielding valid confidence intervals. We demonstrate the robustness of our methodology through simulations and an application to data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our analysis of NHANES data on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and leukocyte telomere length (LTL) identified age as a significant effect modifier. Specifically, we found that exposure to 3,3',4,4',5-pentachlorobiphenyl (PCB; NHANES analyte LBXPCBLA) consistently had a differential impact on LTL, with a 1-SD reduction in exposure leading to a more pronounced increase in LTL among younger populations than in older ones. We offer our method as an open-source software package, EffectXshift, enabling researchers to investigate the effect modification of continuous exposures. The EffectXshift package provides clear and interpretable results, informing targeted public health interventions and policydecisions.

PMID:
42425926
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 10 Jul 2026.

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