Hospitalizations and deaths from major respiratory viruses in the US: An ensemble time series modeling study, 2016-2025.

Authors

Chelsea L Hansen, Nabila Shaikh, Sarah Naeger, Laurence Torcel-Pagnon, Sandra S Chaves, Cecile Viboud

Published in

The Journal of infection. Pages 106811. Jul 11, 2026. Epub Jul 11, 2026.

Abstract

To estimate the hospitalization and mortality impact of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), rhino/enteroviruses (RV/EV), and SARS-CoV-2.
We applied age-specific time series regression models to weekly vital statistics and medical claims data for inpatient hospitalizations from the United States (US) from 2016 to 2025. Our results represent probabilistic estimates from five separate models combined using quantile averaging.
From 2016 to 2020, there was an annual average of 1,441,808 (95%CI 1,062,630-1,836,536) model-attributed hospitalizations due to the combined burden of influenza, RSV, HMPV, and RV/EV and 46,957 (95%CI 37,389-56,414) model-attributed deaths due to the combined burden of influenza, RSV, and HMPV. The relative burden of specific viruses differed by age group. From 2022 to 2025 this rose to an average of 1,716,865 (95%CI 1,238,382-2,190,080) hospitalizations and 109,996 (95%CI 94,775-125,073) deaths, with the increase driven by SARS-CoV-2.
Respiratory viruses, including those vaccine-preventable, are a substantial cause of hospitalization and mortality in the US and their combined burden has increased due to the emergence and persistent circulation of SARS-CoV-2. Continued monitoring of the endemic burden of SARS-CoV-2 is a critical public health priority.

PMID:
42435861
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 12 Jul 2026.

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