Authors
EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH), Antonio Vicent Civera, Paula Baptista, Anna Berlin, Elisavet Chatzivassiliou, Jaime Cubero, Nik Cunniffe, Eduardo de la Peña, Nicolas Desneux, Francesco Di Serio, Anna Filipiak, Paolo Gonthier, Beata Hasiów-Jaroszewska, Hervé Jactel, Blanca B Landa, Lara Maistrello, David Makowski, Panagiotis Milonas, Nikos T Papadopoulos, Roel Potting, Hanna Susi, Dirk Jan van der Gaag, Luis Bonifacio, Gregor Urek, Matteo Crotta, Alex Gobbi, Agata Kaczmarek, Dora Mijic, Marco Pautasso, Hans-Hermann Thulke
Published in
EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority. Volume 24. Issue 7. Pages e10171. Epub Jul 22, 2026.
Abstract
This Scientific Opinion reviews existing models that assess eradication and containment strategies of the pinewood nematode (PWN) Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The objective was to characterise modelling approaches, validation data and methods used to investigate possible interventions. A literature search was conducted in Web of Science and Scopus in October 2025 with no restriction on publication date. After removal of deduplication, 1560 references were recorded. The systematic literature review was conducted in three stages: Phase 1 identified studies reporting spread models; Phase 2 pre-selected models able to represent host-vector systems and intervention measures; and Phase 3 consisted of a structured technical appraisal informed by a set of 85 items covering biological realism, spatial and temporal structure, parameterisation, validation, management scenarios and operational applicability. These items supported qualitative appraisal and were not used for formal scoring. The review retained 125 studies after Phase 1 and 28 after Phase 2. In Phase 3, six modelling studies were identified that investigate the efficiency of actionable intervention protocols for PWN outbreaks. Ordinary differential equation models and several partial differential equation models were not considered sufficient for spatially defined measures, such as clear-cutting and buffer zones, because they lacked the required spatial resolution or biological and operational detail. The most suitable approaches were spatially explicit grid-based, network-based or individual-based models able to represent local spread, landscape heterogeneity and vector-mediated transmission. In these modelling studies, validation efforts addressed space-time patterns of observed outbreak data from different regions. Although none of the six identified modelling studies were suitable for a comprehensive investigation of sets of intervention measures, all were considered potentially adaptable through targeted refinement and improved parameterisation. Required improvements include explicit representation of surveillance and detection, sequential application of measures in response to outbreak development, implementation delays in control measures, incomplete host removal, host dynamics, climate or landscape variability and, where relevant, human-mediated pest dispersal. The review identifies existing models and additional capabilities required for quantitative assessment of PWN control and containment strategies.
PMID:
42488729
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 23 Jul 2026.
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