The trajectories of cardiometabolic multimorbidity associate with mortality risk: a study based on Guangdong adult chronic diseases and risk factors cohort.

Authors

Shanghui Ye, Xiuling Song, Maigeng Zhou, Zhenping Zhao, Yuchang Zhou, Xuan Yang, Jianxiong Hu, Keqing Liang, Aga Zheng, Ni Xiao, Liming Pu, Xueyan Zheng, Ye Wang, Dejian Zhao, Yu Liao, Tao Liu, Ruilin Meng, Wenjun Ma, Guanhao He

Published in

Frontiers in public health. Volume 14. Pages 1833156. Epub Jul 09, 2026.

Abstract

Cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) prevalence has risen, but longitudinal evidence on trajectories and mortality links remains limited.
This study aimed to examine CMM trends and the impact of its statuses/trajectories on mortality in Guangdong, China.
This is a cohort study.
Data were collected from the Guangdong Provincial adult chronic diseases and risk factors cohort (GDACRC). The follow-up data were collected from the hospitalization record system and the vital register system in Guangdong Province.
Baseline surveys were separately conducted in 2007, 2010, 2013, 2015, and 2018, which recruited 34,244 participants aged 18 years or older.
Calculated age-sex standardized CMM prevalence. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the associations between CMM statuses/trajectories and mortality risk.
From 2007 to 2018, the prevalence of CMM increased significantly from 4.31 to 8.75% in Guangdong Province, China (p < 0.05). Compared with participants without any cardiometabolic diseases (CMD), the mortality risk of those with single CMD and CMM, respectively, increased by 30 and 85%, with a greater risk of patients aged < 65 years. The most common trajectory was from metabolic disease (M) to cardiovascular diseases (C), that 9.31% healthy participants at baseline developed CMM on this trajectory, which accounted for 53.5% of all CMM patients. Compared to patients with single M, patients with the trajectory from C to M had greater mortality risk (HR = 3.32, 95% CI: 2.13-5.16).
Single-province sample; self-report bias.
CMM represents a major public health challenge in Guangdong Province, China. Our findings provide new insights on the CMM progression, which may be helpful for prevention and clinical management of CMM.

PMID:
42494901
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 24 Jul 2026.

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