COVID-19 vaccination rates as a proxy for health system resilience: implications of development disparities for cervical cancer control during the pandemic.

Authors

Qian Guo, Chen Xu, Jia Li, Chunlei Qi

Published in

Frontiers in medicine. Volume 13. Pages 1858206. Epub Jul 24, 2026.

Abstract

To assess COVID-19's impact on global cervical cancer burden and examine how COVID-19 vaccination rates and Human Development Index (HDI) interact to shape disease trends, with exploratory projections to 2050.
Using Global Burden of Disease 2023 data (1990-2023), we analyzed age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate of cervical cancer. Joinpoint regression estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) for pre-pandemic (1990-2019) and pandemic (2020-2023) periods. Linear and interaction models assessed associations between HDI, COVID-19 vaccination rates, and EAPC, with bidirectional stratified analyses. Projections to 2050 were generated under three exploratory scenarios.
The pandemic coincided with a reversal of the pre-pandemic declining trend in cervical cancer burden indicators. Global ASIR increased 6.0% (p = 0.031), with EAPC shifting from -0.41%/year (p < 0.001) to 3.93%/year (p = 0.008). Low-SDI regions experienced the sharpest rise (ASIR 18.6%). EAPC showed a significant negative association with HDI (β = -15.4, p < 0.001). The interaction term was positive (β = 36.1, p < 0.001, ΔR ² = 6.4%). Bidirectional stratification revealed divergent patterns. In low-HDI countries, higher vaccination coincided with lower EAPC (β = -7.15, p = 0.005). In high-HDI countries, a positive association emerged (β = 6.53, p < 0.001). HDI effects attenuated across vaccination quartiles: strong negative associations in low-vaccination contexts (Q1: β = -29.06, R² = 39.7%) to non-significance in high-vaccination settings (Q4: β = -4.97, p = 0.244). Under current trends, low-SDI regions would achieve WHO 90-70-90 targets ~10-12 years behind high-SDI regions.
COVID-19 vaccination rate shows context-dependent associations with cervical cancer burden: stronger negative associations in low-HDI settings and positive associations in high-HDI settings. These findings support dual-purpose investments in emergency infrastructure for pandemic preparedness and cancer control.

PMID:
42568605
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 08 Aug 2026.

Read full publication at:
Please sign in to see all details.

Stats

1-terrible, 9-excellent. How would you rate this publication? Sign in in to submit your rating.

Post a comment

You need to be signed in to post comments. You can sign in here.

Comments

There are no comments yet.