Authors
Zirui Wang, Wentao Wu, Yanlu Xu, Yuhan Zhu, Wei Liu, Zengtong Zhou, Shiyan Yu, Chenxi Li, Shilinjun
Published in
Oral oncology. Volume 181. Pages 108102. Aug 10, 2026. Epub Aug 10, 2026.
Abstract
This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of a quantitative index measuring the extent of somatic copy-number alteration (SCNA) for malignant transformation (MT) in oral leukoplakia (OLK).
A prospective cohort of 122 patients with OLK was followed for a median of 74 months. Whole-exome sequencing (WES) was performed on fresh-frozen tissue specimens. SCNA-L was defined as the total autosomal length of segments exceeding predefined copy-number and minimum-width thresholds. The cohort was stratified into high- and low-SCNA-L groups using a median cutoff of 3.3. The primary outcome was MT to oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Statistical analyses included Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, Cox proportional hazards models, time-dependent ROC curves, a 1,000-resample bootstrap optimism-corrected C-index, and bootstrap internal validation using calibration curves.
The MT rate was significantly higher in the high-SCNA-L group (26.7%) than in the low-SCNA-L group (6.5%; P < 0.01). SCNA-L remained an independent predictor of MT in the multivariable analysis (hazard ratio = 4.684, P = 0.006). The predictive model, incorporating SCNA-L and lesion type, demonstrated adequate discrimination and satisfactory calibration for mid-term prediction.
As an independent predictor of MT in OLK, the quantitative index SCNA-L can serve as a molecular supplement to conventional pathological grading.
PMID:
42574790
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 11 Aug 2026.
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