Ultra-processed food consumption and risk of type-2 diabetes in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort study.

Authors

Priscila Machado, Natalia Tolstova, Melissa Lane, Caroline Costa, Euridice Martinez Steele, Fernanda Rauber, Renata Levy, Sarah McNaughton, Mark Lawrence, Carlos Augusto Monteiro, Allison Hodge

Published in

Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Pages 156434. Aug 10, 2026. Epub Aug 10, 2026.

Abstract

Prospective evidence on the association between ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption and type-2 diabetes, and the potential mediator role of body mass index (BMI), is lacking in Australia.
To investigate the association between UPF consumption and incident type-2 diabetes in Australian adults, and to further examine the mediating role of BMI in this association.
Prospective study using the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) data.
/Setting: Participants were recruited from the Melbourne metropolitan area between 1990-1994 (baseline), with follow-ups conducted in 1995-2002 and 2003-2007. A total of 25,214 participants aged 40-69 years, without diabetes at baseline, and who provided baseline dietary and follow-up diabetes data were included.
Incidence of type-2 diabetes was assessed at follow-up 1 (self-report) and follow-up 2 (self-report, elevated plasma glucose (≥ 126 mg/dL fasting or ≥ 200 mg/dL non-fasting), or medication use).
Adjusted Poisson regression models estimated Incidence Rate Ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of type-2 diabetes per 10% increase and by quartiles of UPF consumption (% total grams/day), using age as the time metric. Regression-based mediation analyses were employed to assess the mediation role of BMI.
During follow-up (mean: 11.6 ± 1.7 years), 1,734 cases of type-2 diabetes occurred. The direct association between each 10% increase in UPF consumption and type-2 diabetes was statistically significant (IRR: 1.16; 95%CI: 1.11, 1.21), yet spline analyses indicated evidence of non-linearity. Participants in the highest quartile of UPF consumption had a 40% higher risk of type-2 diabetes (IRR_{highxlow category} = 1.40, 95%CI: 1.22, 1.60; p<0.001). BMI significantly mediated 18% of the association.
In this large cohort of Australian adults, higher UPF consumption was associated with an increased risk of type-2 diabetes, with BMI as an important mediator.

PMID:
42575428
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 11 Aug 2026.

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