Japan's health system toward 2040: structural challenges and a renewed social contract.

Authors

Lisa Yamasaki, Haruka Sakamoto, Hideki Hashimoto, Naoki Kondo, Osamu Kunii, Yusuke Tsugawa, Sarah Krull Abe, Satoshi Ezoe, Shinichi Egawa, Renzo R Guinto, Ataru Igarashi, Angkana Lekagul, Kaung Suu Lwin, Mitsuru Mukaigawara, Ho Namkoong, Yoshitaka Nishino, Santosh Kumar Rauniyar, Eiko Saito, Kenji Shibuya, Keizo Takemi, Kun Tang, Takahiro Tabuchi, Hana Tomoi, Tomoko Suzuki, Shuhei Nomura

Published in

The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific. Volume 72. Pages 101920. Epub Jul 15, 2026.

Abstract

Japan's universal health coverage system has supported healthy longevity, but now confronts institutional stagnation: widely recognised structural pressures persist without reform of its core architecture. A multidisciplinary working group of 25 experts from Japan and the Western Pacific identified three interdependent structural challenges perpetuating policy inertia. These comprise a volume-driven, hospital-centric delivery model sustained by fee-for-service incentives, rigid budget allocation, and underdeveloped health technology assessment; fragmented data infrastructure and eroded public trust undermining evidence-informed governance; and institutional insularity limiting global interdependence. We propose a Vision 2040 framework with three goals: transitioning to an open, community-based ecosystem prioritising daily functioning and wellbeing; establishing trust and scientific independence as foundations of governance; and ensuring equity through circular innovation, in which Japan contributes to and learns from regional health networks by integrating global learning with domestic value assessment. Nine recommendations provide a roadmap for governance reform, data integration, reimbursement realignment with societal value, and reciprocal workforce partnerships. Reconstructing the social contract underpinning universal health coverage is central to sustainability across ageing Western Pacific societies.

PMID:
42609530
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 18 Aug 2026.

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