Trends and Projections of the Burden of Uterine Prolapse in China and G20 Countries: A Comparative Study Based on Global Burden of Disease 2023.

Authors

Hang Yan, Fengying Hu, Suxia Chen

Published in

Journal of visualized experiments : JoVE. Issue 233. Jul 31, 2026. Epub Jul 31, 2026.

Abstract

This observational longitudinal study utilized the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database to comprehensively analyze and project the burden of uterine prolapse (UP) in China and G20 countries from 1990 to 2050. Incidence, deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) were assessed, including their age-standardized rates (ASRs). Trends from 1990 to 2023 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression (calculating the average annual percentage change, AAPC), along with their respective 95% confidence intervals (CI), and decomposition analysis. The future burden to 2050 was projected using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models. From 1990 to 2023, the ASRs for incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and YLDs of UP in China showed a declining trend, with AAPCs of -0.47 (95% CI -0.51 to -0.44), -0.52 (95% CI -0.56 to -0.47), -0.50(95% CI -0.54 to -0.46), and -0.52 (95% CI -0.55 to -0.48), respectively. A transient increase was observed between 2010 and 2015. The ASR for deaths remained near zero, while the ASR for YLLs increased (AAPC = 2.12, 95% CI 1.32-2.93). The G20 countries showed similar declining trends for non-fatal burdens, with reductions more pronounced than in China. Projections indicate that from 2023 to 2050, the ASRs for incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and YLDs will continue to decline in both China and G20 countries, with a faster decrease anticipated in China. Consequently, the age-standardized burden among Chinese women is expected to remain lower than the G20 average. In conclusion, while China's age-standardized UP burden is historically and prospectively lower than the G20 aggregate, rising absolute numbers due to population aging indicate a substantial future healthcare burden. This underscores the need for China to develop targeted, age-group-specific prevention and control strategies.

PMID:
42612078
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 19 Aug 2026.

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