Authors
Tao Sun, Huifeng Wu, Lennart Weltje, Evgenios Agathokleous, Edward J Calabrese, John P Sumpter
Published in
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Volume 123. Issue 34. Pages e2617990123. Aug 25, 2026. Epub Aug 19, 2026.
Abstract
A long-standing issue in ecotoxicology is the arbitrarily chosen and ambiguous definition of "environmentally relevant" concentrations, which undermines research comparability and hampers risk characterization. Here, we propose a probabilistic framework that anchors exposure levels to percentiles of environmental concentration distributions, defining low (<5th percentile), typical (5th to 95th percentiles), and high (>95th percentile) concentrations, as well as worst-case scenarios (e.g., the 99th percentile) for specific contexts. This framework transforms test concentration selection from a subjective assertion into a statistically justified practice, where each concentration corresponds to an explicit occurrence probability. Using global monitoring data, we demonstrate that environmental concentrations reliably follow cumulative probability distributions, validating the fundamental assumption. Crucially, the framework offers a statistical solution for designing proof-of-relevance and proof-of-concept studies. Collectively, this work provides an empirically grounded, immediately usable template for designing ecotoxicological experiments that bridge environmental monitoring, laboratory testing, and regulatory decision-making.
PMID:
42616790
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 20 Aug 2026.
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