Advances in small area population estimation in the absence of national census data.

Authors

Andrew J Tatem, Gianluca Boo, Heather R Chamberlain, Christopher C Nnanatu, Edith Darin, Douglas R Leasure, Ortis Yankey, Assane Gadiaga, Sabrina Juran, Luis de la Rua Rodriguez, Jessica Espey, Attila N Lázár

Published in

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Volume 123. Issue 35. Pages e2413993123. Epub Aug 21, 2026.

Abstract

Population data at small area scales are essential for effective decision-making, influencing public health, disaster response, and resource allocation, among others. While national censuses remain the cornerstone of population data, they are often constrained by high costs, infrequent collection cycles, and coverage gaps, which can hinder timely data availability. To address these challenges, geospatial statistical approaches using limited microcensus surveys have been demonstrated as a reliable source, but the field has advanced substantially in recent years, with significant developments in both data sources and modeling methodologies. New approaches now leverage routine health intervention campaign data, satellite-derived settlement maps, and bespoke modeling approaches to produce reliable small area population estimates where enumeration is difficult or outdated. Various countries are applying these techniques to support census operations, health program planning, and humanitarian response. This manuscript reviews recent advances in "bottom-up" population mapping approaches, highlighting innovations in input data, modeling methods, and validation techniques. We examine ongoing challenges, including partial observation of buildings under forest canopy, population displacement, and institutional uptake. Finally, we discuss emerging opportunities to enhance these approaches through better integration with traditional data ecosystems, capacity strengthening, and coproduction with national institutions.

PMID:
42627843
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 22 Aug 2026.

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