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Modeling the effects of climate risk on primates globally: New perspectives on conservation priorities.

Created on 22 Aug 2026

Authors

Yang Teng, Yueqi Yin, Ying Shen, Yue Sun, Jiawen Liu, Jiwei Qi, Xiaochen Wang, Mingyi Zhang, Paul A Garber, Zuofu Xiang, Xumao Zhao, Ming Li

Published in

Science advances. Volume 12. Issue 34. Pages eaeg0031. Aug 21, 2026. Epub Aug 21, 2026.

Abstract

Rapid climate change poses a severe threat to biodiversity, and phylogenetic diversity-a key metric capturing evolutionary uniqueness and adaptive potential-is critical for conservation. Integrating a well-resolved phylogenetic tree of 424 primate species, we combined spatial analysis and climate risk modeling to explore global spatiotemporal patterns of primates and assess their vulnerability under future climate scenarios. The results suggest a pronounced latitudinal pattern in primate distribution, with isothermality and annual mean precipitation as key drivers. Primate species in the American tropics (Mexico, Central, and South America) and southern China showed later divergence times and lower phylogenetic diversity, emerging as neo-hotspots for primates. Under future climate change, species in these neo-hotspots will face higher climate risks than those in paleo-hotspots of primate diversity. In addition, high human pressure, high climate risk, and limited protected area coverage increase species and population survival risks in hotspot regions. Overall, this global study deepens our understanding of biodiversity conservation under current climate change scenarios and synergistically advances the preservation of numerous natural services essential to ecosystem health and human well-being. Our study provides a spatially explicit framework to fulfill Targets 3 and 8 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

PMID:
42627898
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 22 Aug 2026.

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