Epidemiological shift in age distribution of Dengue in Thailand, 2005-2024.

Authors

Kittipong Sornlorm, Roshan Kumar Mahato, Sarayu Muntaphan, Kanit Hnuploy, Rajitra Nawawonganun

Published in

PLoS neglected tropical diseases. Volume 20. Issue 8. Pages e0014697. Aug 31, 2026. Epub Aug 31, 2026.

Abstract

Dengue has historically been characterized as a childhood disease, but evidence of shifting age distribution is increasing. We analyzed 20 years (2005-2024) of national dengue surveillance data from Thailand comprising 1,639,442 cases to examine temporal trends in age-specific incidence, quantify age shift magnitude using the ratio of incidence rate ratios (RIRR), and decompose observed changes using Kitagawa decomposition. The proportion of cases among adults ≥25 years nearly doubled from 19.56% to 36.16%, while the children's proportion declined from 54.49% to 41.63%. RIRR for adults 25-44 years was 1.78 (95% CI 1.76-1.80), and for older adults ≥45 years was 2.19 (95% CI 2.15-2.24). Kitagawa decomposition attributed +178.7% of change to epidemiological factors and -78.7% to demographic shifts, supporting a declining force of infection rather than population aging as the primary driver. These findings necessitate expanding dengue prevention beyond school-based programs and enhancing clinical vigilance for adult dengue.

PMID:
42672087
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 01 Sep 2026.

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