Frailty and Arthritis Risk in a Population-Based Cohort: Long-Term Follow-Up and Predictive Model Evaluation.

Authors

Bingqi Wei, Xinyue Zhang, Shao Cheng, Yijing Li, Qianwen Yao, Luwei Zhang, Shangzeng Wang

Published in

Journal of applied gerontology : the official journal of the Southern Gerontological Society. Pages 7334648261481204. Aug 31, 2026. Epub Aug 31, 2026.

Abstract

BackgroundLongitudinal evidence on frailty and subsequent arthritis in China is limited.MethodsWe analyzed 4,615 adults aged ≥45 years from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-2020), excluding those with baseline physician-diagnosed arthritis. Multivariable logistic regression assessed associations of baseline pre-frailty and frailty with arthritis at follow-up. Sensitivity, discrimination, and exploratory subgroup analyses were performed.ResultsAt follow-up, 1,219 participants (26.4%) reported arthritis. Compared with robust participants, pre-frail (OR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.14-1.59) and frail participants (OR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.04-2.55) had higher odds of arthritis. Findings remained directionally consistent in sensitivity analyses. Adding frailty modestly improved discrimination (AUC: 0.588 vs. 0.599; ΔAUC = 0.011; P = 0.017). No interaction remained significant after multiple-testing correction.ConclusionPre-frailty and frailty were associated with higher odds of arthritis after 9 years, supporting frailty as a potential longitudinal risk marker, although its incremental discriminatory value was limited.

PMID:
42673574
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 01 Sep 2026.

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