Global and Chinese trends in disease burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis from 1990 to 2021 with projections to 2040: a COVID-19 impact analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Authors

Si-Si Liu, Zhang-Yi Dai, Fu-Qiang Wang, Jia-Jun Cheng, Yun Wang

Published in

Journal of thoracic disease. Volume 18. Issue 2. Pages 104. Feb 28, 2026. Epub Feb 26, 2026.

Abstract

Despite the growing recognition of interstitial lung disease (ILD), updated estimates of its global burden that account for the disruptions of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are currently unavailable. This study updates the global and Chinese ILD burden using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, analyzing trend deviations during the COVID-19 period and examining disparities between high- and low-resource settings.
We used data from the GBD 2021 study to analyze the global and Chinese burden of ILD. Joinpoint regression analyzed temporal trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR). Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average projection model was also used.
Globally, ILD and sarcoidosis caused 390,267 incident cases and 188,222 deaths in 2021, with males bearing over half the disease burden. From 1990 to 2021, ASIR increased from 3.77 to 4.54, ASPR from 45.99 to 50.01, ASMR from 1.52 to 2.28, and ASDR from 37.15 to 47.62 (all per 100,000 individuals). These age-standardized rates (ASRs) demonstrated distinct temporal patterns, with an initial increase from 1990 to 2019, followed by a decline from 2019 to 2021. In China, specifically, the ASRs exhibited a more complex pattern: an initial decrease, followed by an increase and subsequent decrease, ultimately showing an upward trend over the 1990-2021 period. APC analysis indicated a positive correlation between disease burden and age. Future projections indicate a declining trend across all metrics by 2040, with consistently higher rates observed in males compared to females.
Due to the impact of COVID-19, the global and Chinese burden of ILD and sarcoidosis showed a decline during 2019-2021, interrupting its previous upward trend. The disease burden was particularly severe among economically disadvantaged regions, elderly populations and males. While projections indicate a potential stabilization or decline in ASRs through 2040, these trends must be interpreted with caution due to potential confounding effects of pandemic-related diagnostic disruptions. Substantial regional disparities and increasing burdens in specific age groups demand targeted interventions.

PMID:
41816403
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 09 Sep 2026.

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