A depth-limited, climate-gated framework for correcting I/SVOC and SOA precursor emission factors for asphalt pavements.

Authors

William E Fayerweather

Published in

Journal of occupational and environmental hygiene. Pages 1-13. Sep 10, 2026. Epub Sep 10, 2026.

Abstract

A depth-limited, climate-gated correction framework was developed to translate published laboratory asphalt-binder emission factors into field-relevant, in-service estimates for intermediate- and semi-volatile organic compounds (I/SVOCs) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors. Published laboratory emissions evidence and standard aging analogs were synthesized with field-representative constraints on near-surface emission-active depth, pavement structure, and metropolitan climatology. Corrected in-service emissions were calculated by multiplying the uncorrected laboratory-derived potential emission estimate by nine bounded correction factors. The factors separated material and geometry scalars that constrained the amount of binder available to emit from climate and transport gates that constrained the time periods during which emission-active conditions occurred. Uncertainty was propagated with Latin-hypercube sampling (N = 10,000) and rank-based Iman-Conover reordering was used to impose specified correlations among selected solar-thermal inputs while preserving their marginal distributions. Incorporating a surface-limited emission-active layer and realistic activation windows suppressed depth-naive continuously activated in-service emission estimates by approximately 10⁴ to 10⁵. Time-phased accounting indicated that construction-stage processes dominated lifetime binder mass loss, with in-service contributions comparatively small and episodic. The leading drivers of corrected factors were the emission-active depth fraction and solar-thermal activation metrics, and conclusions were robust to alternative prior families. The framework provides an auditable translation layer for inventory workflows that accept multiplicative correction factors. It can be ported to other metropolitan areas by re-centering a small set of climate and use parameters; independent field flux validation remains a priority.

PMID:
42721375
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 11 Sep 2026.

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