Will there be a warning for the next pandemic?

Authors

Justin Lessler, C Jessica E Metcalf

Published in

Science advances. Volume 12. Issue 38. Pages eaef2194. Sep 18, 2026. Epub Sep 16, 2026.

Abstract

How to best allocate resources to combat the threat of pathogen emergence remains an important open question. Using archetypes that characterize the link from genotype to fitness in both zoonotic reservoirs and humans, we show that, across a range of plausible conditions, emergences of pathogens with pandemic potential in humans are unlikely to be preceded by detectable, failed, attempts. Yet, the number of "failed" emergence events contains information about the emergence potential of zoonotic pathogens, and should modify our beliefs about the underlying fitness landscape. Our work suggests that the most important, modifiable, risk factors for emergence may be phenomena that alter fitness landscapes, such as viral ecology in bridge species and human immunological landscapes.

PMID:
42748247
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 17 Sep 2026.

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