Using novel internet-based sources for Population Size Estimation of Gay, bisexual, and other cisgender men who have sex with men.

Authors

Yuanqi Mi, Alex Garner, Maguette Niang, Chenglin Hong, Sean Howell, Jody Herman, Ian Holloway, Stefan Baral

Published in

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences. Sep 16, 2026. Epub Sep 16, 2026.

Abstract

Population size estimates (PSE) for gay, bisexual, and other cisgender men who have sex with men (GBMSM) remain difficult where stigma and criminalization limit data collection and HIV resource allocation. We aim to assess whether Google Trends and a gay social networking app can provide standardized, low-cost population size estimates (PSE) for gay, bisexual, and other cisgender men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in Senegal, Ghana, Mozambique, and Indonesia. We analyzed country-level and local GT relative search volumes for "porn" and "gay porn" from September 2024 to September 2025. Pornhub global review data were applied to produce proportional GBMSM PSEs. App estimates were derived from monthly active users and extrapolated to annual users. Proportional estimates were multiplied by the male population aged 15-49 years to obtain absolute PSE and compared with UNAIDS Key Population Atlas estimates. Sensitivity analyses used survey-based multipliers and alternative search-term combinations. GTPSE ranged from 0.37% in Mozambique to 1.92% in Indonesia, while app-based estimates ranged from 0.29% in Mozambique to 1.34% in Ghana. GTPSE exceeded UNAIDS estimates in Ghana, Mozambique, and Indonesia. App-based estimates exceeded UNAIDS estimates in Ghana and Mozambique. Maputo's estimated GBMSM proportion was substantially higher than Mozambique's national estimate. GTPSE generally exceeded UNAIDS estimates, which may reflect underestimation in stigmatizing settings where GBMSM are less likely to be reached through field-based methods or mainstream health services. Social network app estimates were lower in some countries, highlighting variability in platform access and geographic differences in the concentration of social networks. Internet-derived data may offer a low-cost, feasible approach to GBMSM PSE in low- and middle-income settings. Further validation through digital data linkages could strengthen HIV prevention and treatment planning.
Reliable estimates of the number of gay, bisexual, and other cisgender men who have sex with men are important for HIV prevention and treatment services planning, but these estimates are often difficult to obtain in settings where stigma, criminalization, and limited resources constrain traditional field-based methods. In this study, we examined whether routinely available digital data could provide an alternative approach. We used Google Trends search data and aggregated data from a gay social networking app to estimate population sizes in Senegal, Ghana, Mozambique, and Indonesia, and compared with available UNAIDS estimates. We found that digital data sources produced broadly plausible but sometimes divergent estimates across countries and platforms. Google Trends estimates were generally higher than UNAIDS estimates. Social network app estimates were lower in some countries, highlighting variability in platform access and geographic differences in the concentration of social networks. Our findings suggest that digital data may complement existing population estimation methods, particularly where conventional approaches are difficult or costly to implement. Further validation across settings and data sources is needed before these methods can be used routinely for public health surveillance and service planning.

PMID:
42779843
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 24 Sep 2026.

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