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Political cost, value balance, and the optimization of university public health emergency governance: an evolutionary game and small signal analysis.

Created on 02 Oct 2026

Authors

Rui Wang, Haonan Wu, Yingyan Liu, Jianlin Li, Xin Li, Ruihao Li

Published in

Frontiers in public health. Volume 14. Pages 1824985. Epub Sep 16, 2026.

Abstract

In major public-health emergencies, universities constitute core nodes within a multi-actor intersecting governance network composed of governments, universities, students, media and social-sector organizations. While uniform closed-campus management can maximize the protection of students' physical health, it frequently overlooks students' mental-health needs and value-recognition concerns, which may exacerbate tensions between universities and students. Taking political costs associated with university pandemic governance as the research subject, this study integrates systems theory and cost-benefit theory to construct a tripartite evolutionary-game model covering universities, social-media platforms and students. Evolutionarily stable strategies are derived by solving replicator-dynamic equations. A small-signal model is further introduced to analyze the stability, root-locus characteristics and participation factors of all eight equilibrium points. Python-based numerical simulation is also adopted to reveal the feedback effect of political costs on system stability. This paper presents a case analysis of responses and proactive adjustment outcomes of two universities during the 2022 Omicron wave. The findings are as follows: (1) University governance behavior serves as the dominant participation factor driving instability across different equilibrium states, whereas student (public) participation acts as the core stabilizing factor and the primary driver of political-cost consumption; (2) Under the optimal equilibrium, a moderate political-cost signal can both warn universities against exploiting information asymmetry and empower them to respond decisively to public-health crises, fostering a win-win tripartite synergy among universities, media and students; (3) When political costs are severely depleted, students will set aside economic considerations and prioritize health-related concerns by adopting negative behavioral responses, which destabilizes the governance system. On this basis, this paper puts forward a three-dimensional "system-process-value" framework. It optimizes the supply pathway of university pandemic-prevention policies through structural reorganization, process re-engineering and value allocation. This framework is not limited to COVID-19-related prevention and control. It also offers transferable guidance for educational institutions to implement routine emergency management when confronted with emerging infectious diseases and future public-health emergencies.

PMID:
42819321
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 02 Oct 2026.

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