Spatial distribution and driving factors of scalding tobacco risk in K326 flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan Province, China.

Authors

Zhimei Yang, Changhui Xu, Khanom Simarani, Guoliang Li, Yukai Huang, Youshou Gao, Dongfang Zheng, Yonglei Jiang, Yi Chen, Yuwen Shao

Published in

Frontiers in plant science. Volume 17. Pages 1922535. Epub Sep 22, 2026.

Abstract

Scalding tobacco is a major curing-related defect that reduces the quality of flue-cured tobacco leaves. Its occurrence and severity are associated with meteorological conditions, field-management practices, and curing-management measures, but their relative roles and spatial patterns remain unclear. This study investigated the spatial distribution and major factors associated with scalding tobacco risk in K326 flue-cured tobacco across the major tobacco-growing regions of Yunnan Province, China.
Meteorological data from 80 weather stations were combined with 3,106 field survey records from ten major tobacco-growing regions. Random Forest (RF), Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), and occurrence-risk models were used to evaluate severity-related associations and spatial risk patterns.
Meteorological variables showed limited predictive ability for scalding severity but contributed to spatial variation in occurrence risk. Annual sunshine duration was the most important meteorological predictor in the MaxEnt model, contributing 48.7%, and higher predicted risk was concentrated mainly in parts of central and western Yunnan. Field-management practices showed stronger associations with severity differentiation, with days after transplanting emerging as the most influential predictor. Among curing-management measures, curing protocol showed greater importance for spatial occurrence-risk prediction, whereas barn loading density showed a stronger association with severity variation.
Scalding tobacco risk in K326 flue-cured tobacco was associated with regional meteorological conditions and field- and curing-management practices. These findings support a shift from curing-centered control toward integrated management combining meteorological risk identification, appropriate harvest timing, coordinated nutrient management, and precision curing. Further multi-year, multi-region, and multi-cultivar validation is needed to improve the generalizability of these findings.

PMID:
42841013
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 07 Oct 2026.

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