Authors
Martin Henke, Zhaoqing Yang, Ruth Branch
Published in
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Volume 123. Issue 42. Pages e2612829123. Oct 20, 2026. Epub Oct 12, 2026.
Abstract
Simulations of the ocean wave climate are critical for assessment of coastal processes and hazards in observation sparse regions such as the Arctic. While the multidecade wind and ice datasets necessary for driving long-term wave simulations have proven reliable for such efforts, the presence of landfast ice along shorelines at scales not represented by these data has been a persistent uncertainty impeding accurate analysis of impacts to Arctic coasts. Here, we explore this uncertainty by producing a historical high-resolution wave simulation and combining simulation outputs with landfast ice data for the Alaskan Arctic. The resulting dataset yields an improved assessment of coastal waves and identifies stark contrasts in the seasonal wave exposure of the Chukchi and Beaufort regions. Notably, analysis shows that absent supplemented landfast ice, coastal ice cover is broadly underestimated by 10 to 25 d, resulting in wave energy being overestimated by 5 to 10% in shallow depths nearshore. Notably, these figures can reach up to 70 d of underestimation for ice cover and 48% overestimation of wave energy in certain locations. The persistent overestimation and potential for extreme positive biases in coastal wave assessment highlight the need for representation of landfast ice in Arctic coastal analysis efforts and our analysis reveals the spatial and temporal biases for related research.
PMID:
42863058
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 13 Oct 2026.
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