Authors
Chuncheng Guo, Shuting Yang, Ilana Schiller-Weiss, Jorge Bernales, Steffen M Olsen, Torben Koenigk, Rashed Mahmood, Tian Tian, Klaus Wyser
Published in
Science advances. Volume 12. Issue 42. Pages eaee5373. Oct 16, 2026. Epub Oct 14, 2026.
Abstract
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered vulnerable to irreversible weakening or collapse under global warming and related Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt, yet its resilience to either forcing remains poorly constrained. Here, we use a carbon dioxide emission-driven Earth system model with an interactive GrIS to assess AMOC reversibility under a range of idealized carbon dioxide emission pathways that produce near-linear global warming up to 10 kelvins (K), stabilization across 1.5 to 9 K, and subsequent cooling. We find that although the AMOC reaches threshold-defined collapsed states, these do not represent dynamical tipping in this model: The overturning weakens quasi-linearly with global mean temperature increase yet consistently and promptly recovers under cooling. In contrast, GrIS mass loss accelerates with warming, continues through stabilizations, and is only slowed by cooling, committing the planet to long-term sea level rise. These results reveal contrasting resilience across climate system components: Under transient carbon dioxide forcing, AMOC strength remains dynamically reversible despite continued Greenland meltwater input, whereas the GrIS is locked into persistent decline. Our findings underscore the urgency of rapid emission cuts to limit climate overshoot, AMOC weakening, and irreversible ice sheet loss.
PMID:
42873877
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 15 Oct 2026.
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