The toll of voting in a pandemic? Regional elections and the spread of COVID-19 in Bavaria.

Authors

Jochen Güntner, Gerrit Stahn, Amelie Wuppermann, Felix Zwies

Published in

The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care. Oct 16, 2026. Epub Oct 16, 2026.

Abstract

This study investigates whether the regional elections held in the German state of Bavaria on March 15 of 2020 - shortly after the WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic - contributed to the spread of COVID-19 cases and COVID-related deaths. Constructing synthetic controls for each of Bavaria's 96 districts based on non-Bavarian German districts, we find that over a third of the increase in positive test results cannot be explained by district-level demographic, economic, health or child care characteristics, nor by the distance to Ischgl - a proxy for skiing tourism associated with the first COVID-19 wave in Germany. Within Bavaria, districts with higher voter participation witnessed a steeper increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths after the election, while controlling for alternative drivers, such as the distance to Ischgl and the number of strong-beer festivals. Our results are highly robust and suggest that an unfortunate timing of elections contributed to the spreading of an infectious disease.

PMID:
42886302
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 17 Oct 2026.

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