Analysis and prediction of trends in birth population and HBsAg-positive pregnant women in Zaozhuang City, 2012-2024.

Authors

Xiwang Sun, Changling Bian, Jingjing Zhu

Published in

Frontiers in public health. Volume 14. Pages 1933547. Epub Oct 02, 2026.

Abstract

To analyze trends and project future changes in birth population and HBsAg-positive pregnant women in Zaozhuang City from 2012 to 2024, providing baseline data and evidence for optimizing resource allocation and formulating strategies to eliminate mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of hepatitis B virus (HBV).
Data on annual births and HBsAg-positive pregnant women were col from the Zaozhuang Statistical Yearbook and the Shandong Provincial Immunization Program Information System (2012 -2024). Birth rate and maternal HBsAg prevalence were calculated. Trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to estimate annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Curve regression models were fitted to project 2025 levels. Time series analysis based on monthly data was performed for forecasting.
The birth rate declined significantly overall (AAPC = -6.676%, p = 0.015), ranging from 5.989‰ to 17.383‰ during 2012 -2024. A period of rapid decline occurred from 2017 to 2021 (APC = -18.730%, p = 0.018). The mean maternal HBsAg prevalence was 2.896%. A significant decreasing trend was observed from 2015 to 2024 (APC = -4.442%, p = 0.001). The birth rate and maternal HBsAg prevalence were best fitted by exponential and quadratic function models, respectively, yielding 2025 projections of 5.876‰ and 1.755%. ARIMA models were selected as optifor forecasting monthly time series: ARIMA(0,1,0)(0,1,2)₁₂ for birth count and ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,1,1)₁₂ for HBsAg-positive pregnant women count.
Fertility levels and maternal HBsAg prevalence in Zaozhuang City exhibit sustained declining trends. The fitted model can be used for short-term prediction, providing robust evidence to inform regional healthcare resource planning and the development of comprehensive interventions to eliminate HBV MTCT.

PMID:
42890657
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 18 Oct 2026.

Read full publication at:
Please sign in to see all details.

Stats

1-terrible, 9-excellent. How would you rate this publication? Sign in in to submit your rating.

Post a comment

You need to be signed in to post comments. You can sign in here.

Comments

There are no comments yet.