Hair trace metal concentrations and cancer incidence in Mexico: A 3-year prospective analysis of the Mexican Health and Aging Study.

Authors

Diego Arriaga-Izabal, Francisco Morales-Lazcano, Adrian Canizalez-Román

Published in

Journal of trace elements in medicine and biology : organ of the Society for Minerals and Trace Elements (GMS). Volume 98. Pages 127976. Oct 15, 2026. Epub Oct 15, 2026.

Abstract

Environmental exposure to toxic metals has been implicated in carcinogenesis, but prospective evidence linking long-term metal exposure to cancer risk in Latin America remains limited. This study aimed to evaluate associations between hair concentrations of fourteen elements (titanium, vanadium, chromium, manganese, cobalt, nickel, copper, arsenic, molybdenum, silver, cadmium, antimony, lead, and mercury) and incident cancer among older adults in Mexico. A longitudinal secondary analysis of the Mexican Health and Aging Study included participants aged ≥ 50 years with hair metal measurements in 2018 and follow-up in 2021. Metal concentrations were log-transformed, and missing data and values below quantification limits were addressed using multiple imputation. Group differences were assessed using Mann-Whitney U tests. Associations with incident cancer were estimated using weighted Firth-penalized logistic regression, with sensitivity analyses adjusting for socioeconomic factors and applying FDR correction. Bootstrap-enhanced elastic net regression was used for multipollutant variable selection, followed by mutually adjusted Firth models. Restricted cubic splines assessed nonlinear exposure-response relationships. Among 2120 participants, 21 developed incident cancer (0.99%). Nickel showed the largest bivariate difference (p = 0.058). Single-metal models showed higher cancer odds with nickel (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.08-2.45) and antimony (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.13-2.63) per interquartile-range increase; neither remained significant after FDR correction (both p = 0.133). Elastic net selected nickel, cadmium, chromium, and molybdenum; after mutual adjustment, only nickel remained associated with cancer (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.03-2.56). No significant nonlinear associations were observed. Nickel showed the most consistent positive association, although findings remain exploratory and require confirmation in larger studies.

PMID:
42896248
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 20 Oct 2026.

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