Operational margin of high-school tennis tournaments under heat constraints: a wet-bulb globe temperature-based scenario analysis.

Authors

Hiroki Yamaguchi, Takaaki Mori, Hiromi Hanano, Kan Oishi, Kentaro Ikeue, Chie Omichi, Kojiro Ishii

Published in

Frontiers in sports and active living. Volume 8. Pages 1914945. Epub Oct 09, 2026.

Abstract

Environmental heat indices such as wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) does not directly indicate whether a tournament schedule can be completed. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to translate WBGT-based environmental conditions into operational indicators relevant to tournament management and evaluate the effects of tournament scheduling and timing on tennis tournament feasibility.
In this observational study, WBGT data (April-October 2018-2022; n = 119,048) from 11 Japan Meteorological Agency stations were analyzed. Hours with WBGT <28 were defined as low-risk operational time and converted into tournament indicators, including feasible tournament days and match capacity. For July-September, the effects of dates (1-10, 11-20, 21-end) and timing (standard, nighttime, and early morning models) were assessed using logistic regression. Scenario analyses combining these conditions were conducted, and the feasibility of the school tennis tournament was evaluated based on low-risk operational time and match capacity.
Adjusting timing significantly increased low-risk operational time (nighttime model: odds ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval: 1.42-1.50; early morning model: odds ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval: 1.33-1.40). By contrast, shifting the tournament dates alone showed smaller effects. The combined adjustments increased the number of feasible days by up to 0.8 d. Although the predefined operational feasibility threshold was met on average in most scenarios, the magnitude of the operational margin varied among scenarios.
Tournament feasibility should be evaluated based on operational margins as well as the predefined operational feasibility threshold. Although the threshold was met on average in most scenarios, the magnitude of the operational margin varied among tournament conditions. Combining changes in tournament dates with timing adjustments resulted in the greatest increase in low-risk operational time and tournament feasibility among the scenarios examined.

PMID:
42920593
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 24 Oct 2026.

Read full publication at:
Please sign in to see all details.

Stats

1-terrible, 9-excellent. How would you rate this publication? Sign in in to submit your rating.

Post a comment

You need to be signed in to post comments. You can sign in here.

Comments

There are no comments yet.