Prenatal Exposure to Wildfire PM2.5 and Risk of ASD and ADHD in Children Enrolled in Medicaid.

Authors

Stefania Papatheodorou, Hayon Michelle Choi, Krista F Huybrechts, Sonia Hernandez-Diaz, Yang Liu, Danlu Zhang, Matthew Shupler, Michael Leung, Wanyu Huang, Xinye Qiu, Yaguang Wei, Christopher J McDougle, Evgenia Papatheodorou, Joel D Schwartz, Brent A Coull, Marc G Weisskopf, Antonella Zanobetti

Published in

JAMA pediatrics. Oct 26, 2026. Epub Oct 26, 2026.

Abstract

Wildfires are an increasing source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), yet evidence on prenatal wildfire smoke exposure and long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes remains limited.
To examine whether prenatal exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 is associated with risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children.
This was a population-based cohort study of the US nationwide Medicaid population using Medicaid Analytic Extract (MAX) data from 2007 to 2014 with follow-up through childhood. Included were mother-child pairs with continuous enrollment and stable residential zip code during pregnancy.
Weekly wildfire smoke-attributable PM2.5 at 1-km2 resolution, aggregated to the zip code level across pregnancy.
Incident ASD and ADHD identified using validated claims-based algorithms. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards models with distributed lag nonlinear models.
A total of 893 212 mother-child pairs (mother mean [SD] age, 24.7 [5.9] years) were included in this analysis. Children entered the cohort at birth (452 218 [50.6%] male). Mean (SD) observed follow-up was 6.3 (2.4) years for children diagnosed with ASD and 7.1 (1.9) years for children diagnosed with ADHD. Among 893 212 children, 8357 were diagnosed with ASD and 22 302 with ADHD. The cumulative incidence until age 8 years was 1.9% for ASD and 10.4% for ADHD. An IQR increase in cumulative wildfire PM2.5 exposure (0.75 µg/m3) during pregnancy was associated with increased risk of ASD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% CI, 1.07-1.59) but not ADHD (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.91-1.17). Associations for ASD were strongest during midpregnancy to late gestation compared with early gestation. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses.
Results of this cohort study show that prenatal exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 may be associated with increased risk of ASD but not ADHD. These findings highlight the potential neurodevelopmental impacts of wildfire smoke and underscore the need for strategies to reduce exposure during pregnancy as wildfire activity intensifies.

PMID:
42931781
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 27 Oct 2026.

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