Laryngeal cancer burden, risk attribution, and forecasts in mainland China and Taiwan: a Global Burden of Disease 2023 analysis.

Authors

Li-Juan Zhou, Ying Huang, Lei Wang

Published in

Cancer treatment and research communications. Volume 49. Pages 101502. Oct 24, 2026. Epub Oct 24, 2026.

Abstract

Comparative evidence on laryngeal cancer burden in mainland China and Taiwan remains limited.
We analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for 1990-2023 and conditional projections to 2040. Outcomes included incident cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and age-standardised incidence (ASIR), death (ASDR) and DALY (ASDALY) rates. Analyses covered Joinpoint trends, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) associations, population-attributable fractions (PAFs), Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) projections and fixed-rate demographic scenarios. Between-location rate ratios used approximate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) with correlation sensitivity analyses.
Mainland China had 43.05 thousand incident cases, 20.41 thousand deaths and 509.19 thousand DALYs in 2023; Taiwan had 0.83 thousand, 0.29 thousand and 7.20 thousand, respectively. Burden was concentrated among older men. Both-sex mainland China-to-Taiwan rate ratios were 0.959 (approximate 95% UI 0.681-1.350) for ASIR, 1.351 (1.029-1.772) for ASDR and 1.285 (0.974-1.694) for ASDALY, assuming zero cross-location covariance. ASDR declined overall by 1.74% annually in mainland China and 2.38% in Taiwan; corresponding ASDALY declines were 1.81% and 2.10%. Mainland China's male ASIR increased during 2014-2023. SDI associations weakened in sensitivity analyses. Tobacco and high alcohol use contributed substantially to attributable burden. Forecasts were uncertain; demographic scenarios suggested increasing case numbers despite population decline.
Priorities include tobacco and alcohol control, occupational-risk reduction, timely diagnosis, and equitable treatment and rehabilitation. Ecological associations and conditional projections do not establish causality or deterministic future outcomes.

PMID:
42933132
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 27 Oct 2026.

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