[Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Driving Factors of Agricultural Carbon Balance in the Main Grain Producing Areas of the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on the XGBoost-SHAP Model].

Authors

Tian-Gui Lü, Meng-Han Yuan, Xian-Zhe Huang, Shu-Fei Fu, Qiao Zhao, An-Ying Chen

Published in

Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue. Volume 47. Issue 10. Pages 6697-6711. Oct 15, 2026.

Abstract

Establishing a carbon balance system for agricultural production in major grain-producing regions serves as a crucial technical foundation for advancing green agricultural transformation. This study evaluates the carbon balance levels of agricultural production in the Yangtze River Midstream Grain Production Zone from 2005 to 2023 using a dynamic-static integrated perspective. It analyzes both static and dynamic equilibrium patterns across time and space， compares four machine learning models， and employs XGBoost and SHAP models to identify key factors influencing changes in dynamic equilibrium levels， thereby providing scientific support for targeted agricultural carbon reduction strategies. Key findings include： ① The static carbon balance in the Yangtze River Midstream Grain Production Zone showed an overall gradual decline， with significant regional disparities. Among 31 cities， 38.710% exhibited inverted U-shaped trends， while 41.935% followed U-shaped patterns. ② The dynamic carbon balance index demonstrated substantial improvement in 2023， with only six cities including Jingmen， Yiyang， and Xinyu maintaining FDBI values below 0 （2020-2023）. Spatially， the region transitioned from a "high balance in the southeast， low balance in the northwest" pattern to a "dual-core north-south cluster" configuration after 2014. ③ The dynamic equilibrium level was primarily influenced by rural population size， farmland scale， agricultural workforce， and primary industry structure. The rural population showed a "V-shaped" trend in its impact； agricultural land scale demonstrated increasing returns to scale within the range of 0.160-0.231 hectares per capita； both agricultural employment and primary industry structure exhibited systematic negative effects beyond critical thresholds. ④ The combination of large agricultural workforce and small-scale land operations contributed minimally to predicting dynamic carbon balance equilibrium. The research indicates that some cities in the Yangtze River Midstream Grain Production Zone still face carbon imbalance issues， necessitating differentiated agricultural carbon reduction strategies targeting key influencing factors to promote sustainable regional agricultural development.

PMID:
42935383
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 27 Oct 2026.

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