[Impacts of Land Use Structure Evolution in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area on Terrestrial Carbon Storage].

Authors

Shu-Xuan Xing, Sheng-Fu Yang, Wen-Jie Fu, Zhong-Zheng Lu, Hao-Nan Sun

Published in

Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue. Volume 47. Issue 10. Pages 7218-7231. Oct 15, 2026.

Abstract

As a typical example of a rapidly urbanizing region， the Wuhan Metropolitan Area is ideal for analyzing the impacts of future land-use structure under different development scenarios on terrestrial carbon stock， which is of great significance for achieving regional sustainable development. By integrating the GeoSOS-FLUS， Geodetector， and InVEST models， this study estimated the spatiotemporal characteristics of land use and terrestrial carbon stock in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area from 1990 to 2020， examined their driving factors， and established four scenarios-natural development， cultivated land protection， ecological protection， and comprehensive development-to simulate and predict carbon stock dynamics for 2030 and 2060. The results indicate the following： ① From 1990 to 2020， the information entropy of land-use structure in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area increased year by year， with significant structural differences among subregions. The expansion of construction land encroached on 1 538.29 km² of cultivated land， increasing its proportion from 4.96% to 8.18%. Cultivated land decreased at an average annual amount of 111.73 km²， mainly in the core areas of the urban agglomeration. ② The conversion of cultivated land to forest land and construction land was the main driver of carbon stock changes， and the conversion of cultivated land to construction land resulted in a carbon stock loss of approximately 1 073×10⁴ t. Temporal factor detection analysis indicated that DEM and NDVI were the most influential driving factors. ③ Scenario simulation results showed that by 2060， the highest carbon stock would occur under the cultivated land protection scenario （64.90×10⁷ t）， followed by the comprehensive development scenario （63.63×10⁷ t）. These findings provide a scientific basis for assessing terrestrial carbon stocks and their spatial driving forces in urban areas and offer a reference for policymakers in formulating "dual carbon" strategies and promoting sustainable development.

PMID:
42935423
Bibliographic data and abstract were imported from PubMed on 27 Oct 2026.

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